Live on Robinhood ChainNVDA · TSLA
Prediction markets on Robinhood Stock Tokens, in USDG on Robinhood Chain. Open until the closing bell. Settled by Chainlink.
Why early pays more
NVDA finished UP · Tuesday open to Friday close
Earliest winner
MeiUP
Tue 9:35 am ET
Paid
69.16
3.45× on 20.00 USDG
Latest winner
BenUP
Fri 3:55 pm ET
Paid
56.25
1.12× on 50.00 USDG
Paid, as a multiple of stake
In an ordinary pool both would have been paid 2.12×.
Made-up bettors and the arithmetic the contract runs; a real settled market replaces this once one settles.
2 markets taking bets until the closing bell. Tap one to see its rules, its price and every bet.
How it works
Bettors pay each other. In an ordinary pool a bet at 3:59 pm is paid like one at 9:30 am; here every opposing dollar that arrives after you is yours, so the market can stay open until the bell.
Bet late and you get your stake back plus whatever the other side adds after you. Bet early and you collect more.
Will the Stock Token's price be higher or lower at the closing bell than at the opening bell? Bet 1 to 25 USDG with one signature. No ETH needed.
Every bet against you that lands after yours adds to what you are paid if you are right. What you have earned only goes up.
Chainlink decides: its price in effect at the opening bell against its price in effect at the closing bell. Payouts arrive in your wallet automatically.
Who can do what
Listing a market and pausing new bets are the only privileged actions. Nobody, Hunch included, can move a stake, set a price, or stop claims, refunds or settlement.
| Who | Can | Cannot |
|---|---|---|
| Safe (guardian of HunchVPM) | pause and resume new entries and new markets; name or remove the pauser | pause or block claims, refunds, resolution; move any stake; set any price |
| Pauser (one key the Safe names) | pause new entries and new markets | resume them; anything else |
| Safe (owner of factory) | allow-list a feed, its Stock Token and its staleness bounds; add/remove an opener | change a listed market's feed, times, bounds, seed, fee or caps |
| Opener (keeper hot wallet) | list a new market through the factory (the only creator HunchVPM accepts), paying the seed itself; owns the seed legs it paid for | change or close an existing market; touch anyone else's position |
| Anyone | resolve with the two proven rounds; void on proven staleness, a proven out-of-range price or a 24 h oracle pause; relay a bettor's signed entry; deliver claims and refunds to owners; sweep fees to the treasury | choose the outcome; send anyone's funds anywhere but to their owner |
| StockRoundResolver | settle its registered markets per the spec | anything else (it has no owner) |
Safe (guardian of HunchVPM)
Pauser (one key the Safe names)
Safe (owner of factory)
Opener (keeper hot wallet)
Anyone
StockRoundResolver
HunchVPM
Holds every stake and pays every winner. Nobody can move a stake or set a price.
StockRoundResolver
Settles each market from two proven Chainlink rounds. It has no owner.
HunchMarketFactory
Lists a market in one transaction, with the opening seed paid by the lister.
USDG
Paxos Global Dollar, the only stake and payout asset.
Whether a Robinhood Stock Token's price is higher (UP) or lower (DOWN) at the closing bell than it was at the opening bell. A daily market runs from 9:30 am to 4:00 pm ET on one trading day; a weekly market runs from the week's first opening bell to Friday's closing bell.
Both prices are Chainlink's price for the Stock Token in effect at that moment on Robinhood Chain: the last update at or before the bell.
The moment your bet lands, it is paid to the people already standing on the other side. So everyone who bets against you after you arrive is, in effect, paying you if you are right.
If you win, you get your stake back plus every opposing dollar that arrived after you. The earlier you call it, the more of that money is yours, and nobody arriving later can shrink what you have already earned.
Bet late and you get your stake back plus whatever the other side adds after you. Bet early and you collect more.
A bet placed a moment before the bell, with nothing coming in after it, is paid exactly its stake back if it wins (1.00×). Sniping pays nothing, which is why markets can stay open until the bell instead of closing early.
No. A bet is one signature over USDG: your wallet signs a transfer of exactly your stake into exactly the market and side you chose, and Hunch sends it and pays the gas.
You can also send the transaction yourself and pay the gas (well under a cent) if you prefer.
Chainlink's price feed on Robinhood Chain, read by a contract that has no owner. Settlement takes two Chainlink price updates, the one in effect at the opening bell and the one in effect at the closing bell, and checks on-chain that each really was the last update at or before its bell.
Anyone can submit that settlement. Nobody at Hunch can set or change a price.
If the opening and closing prices are the same, every bet is refunded in full with no fee. The same happens if either price is more than 26 hours old at its bell (the feed missed its daily update), if either price is out of range (not a real price), or if Robinhood pauses the token's price for a corporate action for more than a day.
If nobody settles a market at all, anyone can refund it 72 hours after the bell.
Get set up
Add Robinhood Chain to your wallet and get USDG onto it. One signature per bet after that, and no ETH needed.
Get set up in 2 minutes
Proof
Every contract, price feed, settlement and fee, each linked to its transaction on Blockscout.
Open the Proof page
Hunch Research
The payout rule, why it holds, and how it would have paid on a real trading tape, with the contract it specifies.
Open the paper (opens in a new tab)