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Overview
What Hunch on Robinhood Chain is, the markets it runs, and the facts that matter before a first bet.
What it is
Prediction markets on Robinhood Stock Tokens that pay an early call more than a late one, and stay open until the closing bell. You bet UP or DOWN on whether a Stock Token’s price will be higher or lower at the closing bell than at the opening bell, in USDG on Robinhood Chain. Chainlink’s price feed decides; nobody types in a price.
What makes it different is the payout rule. In an ordinary pool, the pot is split at the end in proportion to stake, so a dollar that arrives at 3:59 pm is paid the same multiple as the dollar that took the risk at 9:30 am. Here, the moment a bet lands it is paid to the people already on the other side. Bet late and you get your stake back plus whatever the other side adds after you. Bet early and you collect more.
Status
The contracts are deployed on Robinhood Chain mainnet (chain id 4663). Addresses are on the Contracts page and the Proof page.
The markets
Binary only: the outcomes are the words UP and DOWN.
| Family | Question | Opening price | Closing price | Bets close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | “Will NVDA finish the week UP?” | Chainlink price in effect at the week's first 9:30 am ET | Chainlink price in effect at Friday 4:00 pm ET | Friday 4:00 pm ET |
| Daily | “Will TSLA close UP today?” | Chainlink price in effect at 9:30 am ET | Chainlink price in effect at 4:00 pm ET | 4:00 pm ET |
Tickers: NVDA, TSLA and AAPL, plus COIN if its price feed passes the check for how often it goes a whole session without moving. SPY is left out: its feed can go a day without an update, and a calm index would end in a refund too often.
Key facts
- Stake asset: USDG only. 1 to 25 USDG per bet during the beta.
- Fee: 2% of a winner’s gain (payout minus stake), taken when paid. Nothing on stakes, refunds, refunded markets or losing bets.
- Refunds: same price at both bells, a price older than its limit, or a corporate-action pause of more than a day refunds every bet in full with no fee.
- No ETH needed: a bet is one signature over USDG; Hunch sends it and pays the gas.
- Paid automatically: after settlement, payouts are pushed to every winner. Anyone can deliver a payout, and it always goes to its owner.
- Two privileged actions: listing markets and pausing new bets. Neither can move a stake, set a price, or stop claims, refunds or settlement.
These docs
- Getting startedA wallet, USDG on Robinhood Chain, and your first bet, step by step, with what each error means.
- How payouts workWhy an early call is paid more, the 1.00× late rule, partial fills and the fee, with the worked example.
- Markets and settlementDaily and weekly markets, trading sessions, the price in effect at the bell, refunds, round proofs and settling a market yourself.
- Gasless bettingThe one signature a bet takes, what exactly you sign, and what the relayer can and cannot do with it.
- ContractsAddresses, the powers table, invariants, the changes from the reference contract and how to verify each one.
- Keeper and operationsThe jobs that list, settle and pay out markets, the refund policy, health checks, and how anyone can do each job.
- APIThe read-only endpoints and the relay endpoint, with request and response shapes.
- Risks and limitsWhat can go wrong, in plain words: stablecoin freezes, the chain operator, price feeds, beta limits, legal limits.
- FAQShort answers to the questions a first-time bettor asks.
- GlossaryEvery term these docs use, defined in plain words.